Risk factors for the progression of periodontal attachment loss: a 5-year population-based study in South Brazil

Aim To assess sociodemographic and behavioural risk factors for periodontal attachment loss (PAL) progression after 5 years in an urban sample from south Brazil. Methods At baseline, 1586 subjects, 14 years and older, were derived using a multistage probabilistic sample strategy. At follow-up, 653 of 755 subjects had ≥6 teeth and were included in this analysis. A modified multiple Poisson regression was used to calculate adjusted relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Overall, 247 (37.8%) subjects exhibited PAL progression ≥3 mm in ≥4 teeth. Subjects older than 30 years had approximately two times higher risk of having PAL progression than younger subjects. Subjects with low education had 53% higher risk (RR = 1.53; 95% CI:1.06–2.22) of PAL progression compared to those with high education. A significant interaction between gender and smoking was observed. Among never-smokers, males were 33% more likely (RR = 1.33; 95% CI:1.06–1.66) to experience PAL progression than females. Among smokers, there was 8% increased risk of PAL progression (RR = 1.08; 95% CI:1.01–1.14) for males and 21% (RR = 1.21; 95% CI:1.11–1.33) for females per 10 packyears. Skin colour, socioeconomy, dental care and diabetes were not significantly associated with PAL progression after statistical adjustment. Conclusion Sociodemographic factors and smoking are independent risk factors for PAL progression in this Brazilian population.