The effect of stumpage prices on large-area forest growth forecasts based on socio-ecological models

Forest ecosystems are typical examples of socio-ecological systems. However, in terms of modelling, the social aspect has been given far less attention than the ecological aspect. In this study, we modelled the impact of economic and social factors on the occurrence of harvesting. This harvest model was then integrated into an individual-based model of forest growth designed for large-area forecasts. The resulting socio-ecological model was then used to produce volume predictions for two regions of France. Among the economic factors, the annual stumpage prices in interaction with the species proved to be a significant predictor of harvest occurrence. Simulating different stumpage price evolutions made it possible to predict supply curves for the two regions. Projections until 2060 showed that increases in stumpage prices will be detrimental to standing volumes in both regions. Integrating the demand for wood products into such socio-ecological models in forestry would be a major improvement.