The world sugar economy: an econometric analysis of long term developments.

An econometric model to examine the growth pattern of the world sugar economy during the next decade is described. The projections are based on a detailed econometric analysis of sugar demand and production in major consuming and producing countries. The results indicate that sugar consumption will grow most rapidly in net importing developing countries, as per capita consumption in developed, centrally planned, and net exporting developing countries approaches saturation levels. It is further projected that sugar prices will reach their peak during 1981 and rise again during the second half of the 1980s. Analysis of the assumptions that underlie these projections indicate that sugar prices and trade are positively related to income. Thus, a healthy world economy has a greater impact on the world sugar economy than any other factor. Numerous statistical tables are provided and basic data and model equations are annexed.