Analysis of high risk factors of acute urinary retention in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia and establishment of prediction model

Objective:To investigate the risk factors of acute urinary retention(AUR)in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia(BPH)and establish a prediction model.Methods:417 patients with BPH were retrospectively enrolled in this study,including 111 patients with AUR and 306 patients without AUR from January 2017 to May2018. The risk factors of AUR in BPH patients were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The logistic prediction model was established according to the results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The effectiveness of the prediction model was evaluated by ROC curve.Results:The incidence of AUR among 417 patients with BPH within 1 year was 26.62%. The levels of IPSS,PV,IPP,Qmax,BC,and PSA in AUR group were significantly higher than those in non-AUR group(P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that elevation of PV,IPSS,IPP,and serum PSA was the risk factors for AUR in patients with BPH(P < 0.05). According to Logistic regression analysis,the prediction model was P = 1/1+EXP(30.061-0.424×IPSS-0.110×PV-0.944×IPP-1.259×PSA),and the area under the ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.909.Conclusion:The elevation of PV,IPSS,IPP value and serum PSA level was risk factors of BPH secondary AUR. The constructed predictive model has good evaluation value for the occurrence of AUR in BPH patients.