Sustainable transboundary groundwater management under shifting political scenarios: the Ceylanpinar Aquifer and Turkey–Syria relations

Recent scholarship evaluates how peace and conflict affect resource sustainability. The authors of this article address how enhanced Turkey–Syria cooperation could impact management of the Ceylanpinar Aquifer, which flows beneath both countries and accounts for over10% of Turkey's transboundary groundwater discharge. Although the Euphrates–Tigris river system apportionment has been critical for bilateral relations, allocation of the Ceylanpinar Aquifer has been neglected. The authors develop a simplified conceptual model to simulate water flow in the aquifer. Taking this model as a reference point, this article explores how political changes may impact aquifer sustainability, and proposes data-integrated modelling for sustainable management.