Smart Growth, Environmental Justice, and Projected Cancer Risk in Southern California: Case Study in Regional Planning and Health

As cities and regions are working towards sustainability by enhancing transit infrastructure and increasing population and employment in targeted neighborhoods, a question arises if greater density in urban areas will increase the exposure of cancer risk to a larger number of people, especially in areas that are in close proximity to highly traveled corridors. Since urban areas have traditionally held a higher share of racial and ethnic minority groups than suburban and outlying areas, this paper will specifically examine the implications of “smart growth” land use and transportation strategies for the public health of various population groups. The recent 2012-2035 Regional Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) adopted by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) serves as a case study to examine the projected cancer risks in Southern California attributed to this Plan. Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) is used to determine future health risk based upon current and projected emissions outputs associated with on-road vehicles. This study shows that increased transit infrastructure and targeted growth in population density reduces the amount of disproportionate impacts for certain racial and ethnic minority groups associated with cancer risk in future years. Alternatively, the number of persons exposed to higher cancer risk areas is greater in future years as a result of these such strategies.