Metals demand in telecommunications

Consumption of metals by Western economies appears to have begun a decline in the mid 1970s which has gone largely unnoticed or explained. Although this period is close to a period of recession, initial analysis of the decline indicated that it could not be explained by general economic factors alone. The authors examined data from various sources on the usage of metals in telecommunications and, in general, find a declining trend in metal usage in recent years but the timing of the decline varies with different metals and does not, in general, coincide with the noted general decline. In addition to economic factors, they propose several technological factors believed to contribute to this trend. These factors can be grouped into two broad categories; evolutionary and revolutionary. Evolutionary factors are those that occur within a given technology as it matures and are associated with a learning-curve type of model as an industry becomes more familiar with a technology. Examples include such things as cost-reduction programs leading to reduced gold use on contacts of miniaturization trends leading to decreased use of materials in general. Revolutionary factors are associated with major, rapid replacement of an existing technology by a new one. Examples includemore » the replacement of lead for cable sheathing by polyethylene and copper wire by optical fibers. 29 references, 13 figures, 7 tables.« less