Non-equidistance gray mode forecast of forest resource dynamic changes in Shandong Province

Non-equidistance grey models of time-series data including forest cover rate,forested area and living trees volume in Shandong Province between 1974-2007 were established based on the Grey Systems Theory.The model fitted well with the main outcomes of forest resource measurement in Shandong Province.The fitting errors were lower than 10 percent.The models had ideal fitting precision.Posterior variance test method was used to test the precision grade of the models.The test results showed that the posterior variance test c values of forest cover rate,forested area and living trees volume were 0.15,0.23 and 0.14,which were all lower than 0.35.Small error possibility was 1.The forecast precision of the models reached the "first grade".The paper provides a more ideal forecast method for constructing "Digital Forestry".It is a basis for formulating the future development of the forestry program in Shandong Province.The forecast results showed that forest cover rate would be 26.78% in 2020,which was lower than 30%,the phased target of construction of ecology province.Therefore,it is very important to promote the development of forest resource,steadily improve forest cover rate,significantly increase forest volume,improve forest quality,so as to avoid the degeneration of forest resource.