Sink or Swim Together? the Diffusion of Death Among Allied Terrorist Groups

As more and more terrorist groups form alliances with one another, they become more and more dependent on one another for their survival. As much as terrorist groups reap benefits from alliances, there are also many risks. While most previous studies focus on how alliances among terrorist groups affect their longevity, this paper focuses on how the death of one group affects its partner’s longevity. This is the first paper of its kind to analyze the diffusion of death among allied terrorist groups. The diffusion of death is examined in this paper in terms of ideologies and regime type. Using a generalized equation estimation (GEE) model with data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 2001 to 2016, we investigate how death of one partnered terrorist group with a certain ideology (religious, leftist, or ethnicity-oriented) affects the longevity of its partners with similar ideologies. Also, using the same model, we examine how the demise of one partnered terrorist group operating under a certain regime type (democracy, autocracy, and neutral) affects the survival of its partners operating within regimes of the same and different types. The results indicate that when one terrorist group ceases to exist and both it and its partner are religiously oriented, the probability of death for the other terrorist group is lower as compared to those with other ideologies. Also, we find that regime type affects the diffusion process. When partnering terrorist groups are based in democratic nations, the diffusion of death among allied groups is more likely to occur. For partnering terrorist groups operating under different regime types, the diffusion of death is less likely as compared to those operating in nations with the same regime type.