Coarse, Medium or Fine? A Quantum Mechanics Approach to Single Species Population Dynamics

Standard heuristic mathematical models of population dynamics are often constructed using ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These deterministic models yield pre-dictable results which allow researchers to make informed recommendations on public policy. A common immigration, natural death, and fission ODE model is derived from a quantum mechanics view. This macroscopic ODE predicts that there is only one stable equilibrium point [Formula]. We therefore presume that as t [->] {infty}, the expected value should be [Formula]. The quantum framework presented here yields the same standard ODE model, however with very unexpected quantum results, namely [Formula]. The obvious questions are: why isnt [Formula], why are the probabilities {approx} 0.37, and where is the missing probability of 0.26? The answer lies in quantum tunneling of probabilities. The goal of this paper is to study these tunneling effects that give specific predictions of the uncertainty in the population at the macroscopic level. These quantum effects open the possibility of searching for "black-swan" events. In other words, using the more sophisticated quantum approach, we may be able to make quantitative statements about rare events that have significant ramifications to the dynamical system.