Prostate Cancer Incidence 5 Years After US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendations Against Screening.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reported that prostate cancer incidence rates in the United States (US) declined for local-stage disease and increased for regional- and distant-stage disease following the US Preventive Services Task Force recommendations against prostate-specific antigen-based screening for men aged ≥75 in 2008 and for all men in 2012. It is unknown, however, whether these patterns persisted through 2016. METHODS: Based on the US Cancer Statistics Public Use Research Database, we examined temporal trends in invasive prostate cancer incidence from 2005-2016 in men aged ≥50 years stratified by stage (local, regional, and distant), age group (50-74 and ≥75), and race/ethnicity (all races/ethnicities, non-Hispanic whites, and non-Hispanic blacks) with joinpoint regression models to estimate annual percent changes. Tests of statistical significance are two-sided, P < 0.05. RESULTS: For all races/ethnicities combined, incidence for local-stage disease declined beginning in 2007 in men aged 50-74 and ≥75 years though the decline stabilized during 2013-2016 in men aged ≥75 years. Incidence decreased by 6.4% (95%CI, 4-9%-7.9%) per year from 2007-2016 in men aged 50-74 years and by 10.7% (95%CI, 6.2%-15.0%) per year from 2007-2013 in men aged ≥75 years. In contrast, incidence for regional- and distant-stage disease increased in both age groups during the study period. For example, distant-stage incidence in men aged ≥75 years increased by 5.2% (95%CI, 4.2%-6.1%) per year from 2010-2016. CONCLUSIONS: Regional- and distant-stage prostate cancer incidence continue to increase in the US in men aged ≥50 years, and future studies are needed to identify reasons for the rising trends.