Value of the lost load with consideration of the failure probability

Abstract Value of the lost load (VOLL) is a useful quantity in economical evaluations of power systems. The VOLL depends on multiple factors such as type of customer, regional economic conditions and demographics, time and duration of outage, and other specific traits of power interruption. The reviewed literatures show that there are still issues which could be considered in estimation of the VOLL, especially for industrial customers. One of the most interesting issues is inclusion of reliability of an industrial plant in estimation of the VOLL. This means that how reliability data of the plant components (failure rates, repair time, etc.) can be incorporated in the studies to provide a probabilistic model for the VOLL and its related quantities. This paper incorporates failure probability in the VOLL estimation of an industrial plant. For this purpose, firstly an estimate for failure rate of the plant components is obtained and secondly, this estimate is applied in failure probability function which is to be incorporated in the VOLL. Results provide a probabilistic model for the VOLL.