[Risk analysis of immunological failure of antiretroviral therapy in HIV/AIDS patients in Taizhou prefecture, 2006-2019].

Objective: To analyze the immunological failure of antiretroviral therapy (ART), its association with baseline anemia and related factors in HIV/AIDS patients in Taizhou prefecture, during 2006-2019. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among HIV/AIDS patients under ART. Cox regression model was used to analyze predictors of immunological failure and logistic regression model was used to analyze factors of baseline anemia. Results: A total of 2 904 HIV/AIDS patients were enrolled with a median time of 28 (P(25)-P(75):12-53) months follow-up of ART, in which 177 cases (6.1%) were identified as immunological failure with a failure rate of 2.17 per 100 person-years. The cumulative incidence rates of immunological failure in the first, third, fifth, and tenth years were 5.49%, 6.94%, 7.30% and 8.82%, respectively. Results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that for the risk of baseline anemia, ≥66 years old group had 4.17 times higher risk than 18-25 years old group (95%CI: 1.68-10.33), males had 0.67 times higher risk than females (95%CI: 0.50-0.89), and CD(4)(+)T cell counts (CD(4)) 300×10(9) cells/L groups had 2.02 times and 4.45 times higher risk than 100×10(9) cells/L-299×10(9) cells/L group (95%CI: 1.36-3.01, 95%CI: 3.05-6.50), respectively. WHO classified stage Ⅲ/Ⅳ group had 2.15 times higher risk than WHO classified stageⅠ/Ⅱ group (95%CI: 1.61-2.87), while heterosexual transmission group had 2.03 times higher risk than homosexual transmission group (95%CI: 1.42-2.92). Results of multivariate cox proportional risk regression showed that for the risk of immunological failure, baseline anemia group had 1.77 times higher risk than no anemia group (95%CI: 1.20-2.60), WHO classified stage Ⅲ/Ⅳ group had 1.66 times higher risk than WHO classified stage Ⅰ/Ⅱ group (95%CI: 1.10-2.48), and withdrawal of follow up and death groups had 3.18 times and 4.61 times higher risks than treatment group (95%CI: 1.96-5.19, 95%CI: 2.98-7.13), respectively. Conclusions: The immunological effect of ART among HIV/AIDS patients in Taizhou prefecture was affected by multiple factors, including anemia, clinical stage and follow-up status. Enhancing surveillance of baseline anemia and timely correction of anemia in elder group can help improve treatment outcome of HIV/AIDS patients.