Non-Point Source Pollutant Load Variation in Rapid Urbanization Areas by Remote Sensing, Gis and the L-THIA Model: A Case in Bao’an District, Shenzhen, China

Urban sprawl is a major driving force that alters local and regional hydrology and increases non-point source pollution. Using the Bao’an District in Shenzhen, China, a typical rapid urbanization area, as the study area and land-use change maps from 1988 to 2014 that were obtained by remote sensing, the contributions of different land-use types to NPS pollutant production were assessed with a localized long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA) model. The results show that the non-point source pollution load changed significantly both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution. The loads of chemical oxygen demand, total suspended substances, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were affected by the interactions between event mean concentration and the magnitude of changes in land-use acreages and the spatial distribution. From 1988 to 2014, the loads of chemical oxygen demand, suspended substances and total phosphorus showed clearly increasing trends with rates of 132.48 %, 32.52 % and 38.76 %, respectively, while the load of total nitrogen decreased by 71.52 %. The immigrant population ratio was selected as an indicator to represent the level of rapid urbanization and industrialization in the study area, and a comparison analysis of the indicator with the four non-point source loads demonstrated that the chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads are linearly related to the immigrant population ratio. The results provide useful information for environmental improvement and city management in the study area.