APOE polymorphism and the progression of diabetic nephropathy in Japanese subjects with type 2 diabetes: results of a prospective observational follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE —The aim of this study is to clarify the conflicting results of the e2/e3/e4 APOE polymorphism as a risk factor on diabetic nephropathy by a cohort study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —A total of 429 Japanese subjects with type 2 diabetes and with normoalbuminuria ( n = 299) or with microalbuminuria ( n = 130) were enrolled in a prospective observational follow-up study during 1995–1998 and followed until 2001 (for at least 3 years). The endpoint was the occurrence of a renal event defined as the progression to a higher stage of diabetic nephropathy. RESULTS —During the study (the mean follow-up period: 4.4 ± 1.0 years), 31 of 429 subjects progressed: 21 from normoalbuminuria to microalbuminuria and 10 from microalbuminuria to overt proteinuria. The allele frequency of the APOE polymorphism was significantly different between the progressors and the nonprogressors. Eight of 42 e2 carriers (19%) progressed, whereas 23 of 387 noncarriers (6%) progressed with a relative risk of 3.2 (95% CI 1.5–6.7). When subjects were stratified by renal status at baseline, each relative risk for the progression in the e2 carriers was 2.7 (0.99–7.4) in those with normoalbuminuria and 4.2 (1.3–13.3) in those with microalbuminuria. Furthermore, when analyzed only in subjects with normoalbuminuria and short duration of diabetes (<15 years) at baseline, the risk in the e2 carriers became higher to 3.2 (1.2–8.8). CONCLUSIONS —Our follow-up study indicates that the e2 allele of the APOE polymorphism is a prognostic risk factor for both the onset and the progression of diabetic nephropathy in Japanese type 2 diabetes.