Quantifying the Effects of Urbanization on Floods in a Changing Environment to Promote Water Security — A Case Study of Two Adjacent Basins in Texas

Abstract The increased occurrence of flood events resulting from urbanization and global climate change is a great threat to water security. To systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on floods, we applied a paired catchments approach to two adjacent river basins in south-central Texas — the San Antonio River Basin (SARB), with fast urbanization; and the Guadalupe River Basin (GRB), with little land cover change. A physics-based distributed hydrological model — the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, embedded with a multi-purpose reservoir module (DHSVM-Res) — was used to simulate streamflow and reservoir storage. The simulations were conducted under different land cover scenarios, including a newly developed continuous land cover series (CLCS). Holistic analyses were then conducted for the paired basins using three methods: analyzing the selected flood events, detecting change points (CP) of monthly floods, and testing the elasticity of long-term flood regimes. The results suggest that: (1) urbanization may reduce lag time and elevate flood peaks significantly by 3 – 30% in our study area; (2) when there is little land cover change, changing climate is the major driver of variations in the monthly maximum streamflow (MMS); (3) fast urbanization can amplify streamflow variability, increase MMS significantly, and thus alter the timing of CP; and (4) the mean MMS of observed streamflow in the SARB has increased by as much as 75.7% from the pre-CP to post-CP periods. This comprehensive study fills in a gap in our current understanding of the isolated impacts of urbanization on flooding and is expected to support future explorations of anthropogenic influences on floods.