Covid-19: Simuleringsmodeller ved epidemier

No human brain has the capacity to think through all possible outcomes of an epidemic. A simulation model can keep track of many individuals and factors that influence the course of the epidemic; however, simulation models can never fully replicate reality. The healthcare service needs answers to a number of questions when epidemics threaten. How many will be infected? How many will require intensive care treatment? How many will die? Should we close schools? Should all those who can, stay home from work? Who should be tested for the infection? Who should be quarantined? How might a vaccine affect the course of the epidemic? These types of questions cannot be answered by searching for randomised trials or registry studies if what we are facing is, as now, a new virus with unknown characteristics. Increasingly, statistical modelling – so-called infectious disease models – are being used nationally and internationally to understand and manage epidemics and the challenges related to infection outbreaks