Challenges to the maintenance and development of transport infrastructure in the changing circumstances of industrial and regional structure

The present research has ascertained the effects in industrial and regional structure on the overall volume of freight transport, on quality and on location in the main traffic network. On the basis of an estimate of the future needs for transportation the actions for the maintenance and development of transport infrastructure in the short term and the long term have been outlined. Prognoses suggest that within 25 years the turnover in wholesale and retail trade will grow from 500 mrd. FIM to 900 mrd. FIM. Moreover, the industrial structure will be altered by the shift in emphasis from basic industry in the direction of hi-tech industry. The turnover of industry producing goods with a high degree of processing will rise from 200 mrd. FIM. To 450 mrd. FIM, while basic industry will grow from 200 mrd. FIM to some 300 mrd. FIM. At the end of the 1990's, due the change in the industrial structure and the overall growth of production, the ton mileage of road, rail and sea transport has clearly not grown apace with GNP. The growth prognoses by field and the special features of goods flows and modes of transport suggest that the development will tend to be the same in coming decades. By the year 2025 GNP is expected to grow 77%, the ton mileage of road transport by 55%, of rail transport by 20% and the amount of goods transported by sea by 35%. The amount of international air cargo is expected to increase threefold. In the coming decades the demands on freight transport are likely to be stricter than at present, especially with regard to punctuality, but also with regard to time of delivery. On the other hand, the importance of cost-efficiency will remain the same. Because of the steady increase in the amount of cost-effective transport it will be important both in the long-term and the short-term to ensure the structural condition of the road network through maintenance measures and compensatory investments. The cost-effectiveness of transport on the rail network will be ensured by maintaining and upgrading the structural condition. Dredging will called for to maintain the seaways. Taking the long-term view, the greatest need for development will centre on the road network. The major growth in the volume of road transport and the demand for punctuality and speed will mean that for the main road connections, the ring roads of the main growth centres and the routes within the Helsinki metropolitan area to the airport and seaports fluent traffic conditions will need to be ensured, if necessary by means of expansion and new investments. Furthermore, to increase the efficiency of the freight transport system there will be a need to intensify considerably the strategic co-operation between transport customers and transport enterprises. This report is available at http://www.mintc.fi