Математическое моделирование оценок риска достижения допусковых границ в процессе испытаний технических систем

This article describes the mathematical modeling of risk assessments of the achievements of tolerance borders in the process of testing of technical systems. For the task of determining the risk that the system is in the process of technical trials (and, subsequently, operation) would not specified tolerance limits is introduced formula assessment of risk associated with the likelihood of output over the border. Risk is treated the threat of losing control of the system. Assessment of the extent of the risk being screened for several classes of possible trajectories of the system in the planning period, depending on the current condition of the system and the values of tolerance borders. Defined maximums risk assessments for these trajectories. Recommendations are given as to the choice of classes planned trajectories, which minimize maximum risk, and on changing the borders of tolerance of the system, so that the risk for fixed-planned trajectory was minimal.