Energy Demand Forecasting System

A description of the computer-based Energy Demand Forecasting System (EDFS) is presented. The system contains a distributed architecture. The system is based on adaptive simulation models. The basic principles of the macroeconomic approach to forecasting the long-term energy demand implemented in the EDFS are outlined. The approach allows for features of various economy and energy sectors and regions to be considered in the course of forecasting, which is critical for countries with large territories. The hierarchical approach is used to develop energy demand forecasts, taking into account regional features. The forecasts are developed using the “top-to-down” method. The algorithm implemented in EDFS for predicting the energy intensities of the sectors based on their links to macroeconomic parameters is described. The forecasts of electricity intensities and electricity demand for Russia up to 2035 year are presented.