O-085 : A Nationwide Analysis of Conditional Survival Estimates for Korean Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Aims: Conditional survival estimates (CSE) can provide more useful prognostic information on survival for a period of time after diagnosis and helps counseling patients with cancer on their individual prognosis of mortality. This study aimed to analyze survival rate over time and estimate conditional survival (CS) for Korean HCC patients using a national population-based registry. Methods: Patients with HCC, registered in the population-based Korean cancer registry database, were retrospectively reviewed. Cumulative overall survival (OS) was calculated by using Kaplan-Meier method, and conditional 1-year survival at “X” year or month after diagnosis were calculated as CS1 = OS(X+1)/OS(X). Cumulative CS calculations were performed with secondary subgroup analyses by BCLC stages, and then patients of stage 0, A, and B underwent subgroup analysis by initial treatment Methods. Results: 3,509 patients diagnosed as HCC from January 2008 to December 2010, and 2,408 from January 2011 to December 2012 in Korea were separately reviewed. In 2008-2010, the actual OS at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years were 68.8%, 57.1%, 48.5%, 42.7%, 37.7%, and 33.4%. 1-year CS of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year-survivors were 83.1%, 84.8%, 88.0%, 88.4%, and 88.5%. Patients demonstrated increase in CSE over time and showed same tendency in almost of all treatment Methods. In 2011-2012, OS at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were 72.5%, 60.7%, 52.2%, and 46.5%. Overall 1-year CS of 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months were 81.4%, 83.7%, 85.0%, 86.9%, 96.9%, and 89.1%. The CSE was also showed tendency to rise over time in subgroup analysis. Conclusions: Overall CSE improved with each additional year after diagnosis in both groups. CS may provide a more accurate prognosis and hopeful message to patients who are surviving with or after treatment. Further prospective nationwide research would be required.