Bayesian Hierarchical Models to Augment the Mediterranean Forecast System

Abstract : Year 2 of Phase 1 Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHM) to Augment the Mediterranean Forecast System ( MFS) ended in May 2007. Long-term goals for Phase I included: a) development of an ensemble ocean forecast methodology based on a surface wind BHM (MFS-Wind-BHM) in data assimilation and forecast steps of the MFS; and b) development of a BHM for time-dependent background error covariance evolution (MFS-Error-BHM) in the MFS data assimilation system . Phase II of the project was initiated in June 2007. Long term goals for the second phase include the development of a BHM to guide ocean model super-ensemble experiments, in both multi-model and the multi-parameter experimental designs. The MFS ocean forecast model will be modified for multiparameter super-ensemble experiments, and MFS will be joined by a Mediterranean Sea implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (MedROMS: http://www.med-roms.org) in multi-model super-ensemble experiments.