Predicting the surface urban heat island intensity of future urban green space development using a multi-scenario simulation

Abstract The distribution and morphology of urban green space (UGS) have a significant impact on its ability to mitigate surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII). In this study, the Future Land Use Simulation model was used to predict land use in Xuchang City by 2030 under three different scenarios. Landsat Operational Land Imager images from 2014 were used to calculate SUHII. And, the relationships and regression models between summer SUHII and land use data were analyzed and developed. The SUHII in 2030 based on simulated land use was predicted using regression models in 2014. Results showed that reductions in SUHII were greater under present land use scenario with a greater proportion of UGS. Furthermore, the degree of aggregation, average patch area, maximum patch shape index, and complexity of the green space also impacted the effectiveness of SUHII mitigation. In future land use scenarios with different constraints, the ecological service function guided scenario was the most effective at mitigating SUHII. These findings provide a reference for the reasonable allocation of urban land and the optimization of UGS in terms of SUHII reduction in small- and medium-sized cities where there is a need for expansion.