Using Climate Projections to Estimate Heat-related Illness Disease Burden

Background Climate change, which is shifting weather patterns and modifying weather extremes, will likely influence public health via multiple pathways. Calculating future disease burden estimates can be daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health and climatological experts is necessary for scientifically-derived estimates. A partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health experts assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program projected future heat-related illness. Methods We provide a brief background on climate modeling and projections, including selection criteria for climate projections and addressing climate model uncertainty. Downscaled climate projection data from ten global climate models are used to project the future health burden for 2040-2069 for six National Weather Service regions. Future disease burden is est...