Multineuronal activity patterns identify selective synaptic connections under realistic experimental constraints.

Structured multineuronal activity patterns within local neocortical circuitry are strongly linked to sensory input, motor output, and behavioral choice. These reliable patterns of pairwise lagged firing are the consequence of connectivity since they are not present in rate-matched but unconnected Poisson nulls. It is important to relate multineuronal patterns to their synaptic underpinnings, but it is unclear how effectively statistical dependencies in spiking between neurons identify causal synaptic connections. To assess the feasibility of mapping function onto structure we used a network model that showed a diversity of multineuronal activity patterns and replicated experimental constraints on data acquisition. Using an iterative Bayesian inference algorithm, we detected a select subset of monosynaptic connections substantially more precisely than correlation-based inference, a common alternative approach. We found that precise inference of synaptic connections improved with increasing numbers of diver...