ESTIMATIVAS DA INCIDÊNCIA E MORTALIDADE POR VÍRUS DA IMUNODEFICIÊNCIA HUMANA E SUA RELAÇÃO COM OS INDICADORES SOCIAIS NOS ESTADOS DO BRASIL

Objective: To estimate the incidence and mortality rates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS)in Brazilian states, and to evaluate their relationship with some social and economic indicators. Materials and Methods: This was an ecological study using data from official sources and epidemiological surveillance authorities. The data were analyzed by multiple linear regression, and Durbin-Watson statistics were used for selection of independent variables in the model. Information on the incidence and mortality rates in all states of Brazil were collected. The selected social and economic indicators included MHDI, Gini Index, per capita income and illiteracy. Results: The state of Rio of Grande do Sulhad the highest death rate from HIV/AIDS. On the other hand, the states of northeastern Brazil showed low mortality rates from HIV/AIDS, excepting for the state of Pernambuco. The multiple linear regression model revealed that amongthe social and economic variables analyzed, only the population aged over 18 yearswas susceptible to morbidity and mortality from HIV/AIDS. Conclusion: Morbidity and mortality rates of HIV/AIDS are still highin different states of Brazil. The public policies implemented to controlthe disease have decreased mortality, but have not prevented the appearance of new cases. Social and economic variables do not explain the morbidity and mortality from HIV/AIDS, although it is believed that these factors can influence the quality of life of individual swith HIV/ AIDS. DESCRIPTORS HIV/AIDS. Incidence. Mortality. Social Indicators.