Exploring the trade-offs between electric heating policy and carbon mitigation in China.

China has enacted a series of policies since 2015 to substitute electricity for in-home combustion for rural residential heating. The Electric Heating Policy (EHP) has contributed to significant improvements in air quality, benefiting hundreds of millions of people. This shift, however, has resulted in a sharp increase in electric loads and associated carbon emissions. Here, we show that China's EHP will greatly increase carbon emissions. We develop a theoretical model to quantify the carbon emissions from power generation and rural residential heating sectors. We found that in 2015, an additional 101.69-162.89 megatons of CO2 could potentially be emitted if EHP was implemented in 45-55% of rural residents in Northern China. In 2020, the incremental carbon emission is expected to reach 130.03-197.87 megatons. Fortunately, the growth of carbon emission will slow down due to China's urbanization progress. In 2030, the carbon emission increase induced by EHP will drop to 119.19-177.47 megatons. Finally, we conclude two kinds of practical pathways toward low-carbon electric heating, and provide techno-economic analyses.