Integrating knowledge on biodiversity and ecosystem services: Mind-mapping and Bayesian Network modelling

Even-though the last years have seen a “blossoming” of initiatives aiming to clarify the link between biodiversity (BD)-ecosystem functions (EF)-ecosystem services (ES)-human well-being (HWB), there is still a need for integrating the knowledge obtained by various research, making it useful for decision-makers. This contribution aims to show ways of gathering, representing and modelling these linkages to enable better decision-making based on available knowledge. This is achieved by: (i) conducting a systematic-review of contributions describing the links between BD–EF–ES–HWB and gathering the information into a database; (ii) organizing that information in a mind-map; (iii) showing, as an example, how a Bayesian Network model and scenarios can be built using the mind-map and database information. We show how gathering information into mind-maps works as a first step to the creation of a unified knowledge base, while Bayesian Network models allow for a better management of data uncertainty, commonly associated with the representation of complex models, as well as providing the possibility of creating future scenarios where assumptions can be tested. Thus, this contribution shows how available knowledge can be linked to improve our understanding of complex issues.