LONG-RANGE VERSUS SHORT-RANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM PLANNING

This paper discusses the difference between short-range research (1-5 year implementation period) and long-range research (10-20 years into the future) and points out the critical lack of long-range transportation research. Past eras of urban transportation are identified and discussed, including (a) "introduction of the automobile" era, (b) "getting out of the mud" era, (c) "freeway" era, and (d) "transportation system management" era. The trend to a "regulation" era due to a lack of long-range research and specific directions for our national transportation program is emphasized. The need to develop a new methodology for long-range transportation research is pointed out along with the need for the development of transportation futurists. A suggested framework for the needed methodology is presented and a plea is made for the critical national need to embark on an effective long-range research program in transportation. (Author)