Estimating risk factors for the daily risk of developing clinical cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) on a fishgroup level

Abstract Cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) is a viral disease, causing significant mortality and decreased welfare in farmed salmon in the North Atlantic Ocean. In Norway, it has become the most important disease in animal husbandry, affecting more than 100 farms each year. Control of CMS is based on mitigation of risk factors, since no treatment or vaccine is available. However, little is known about how the disease spreads and develops, thus rendering disease control difficult for farmers and competent authorities. The objective of the present study was to identify risk factors leading to the development of clinical CMS, using data provided from the salmon producers. Daily production data from individual fishgroups in more than 120 salmon farms along the coast of Norway from fish put to sea in 2012-2014 was collected. The data included cause-specific mortalities, which was used to identify outbreaks of CMS and risk factors for disease. A model for describing the daily probability of outbreak of CMS in each fishgroup was developed. The model was run to find the most likely value for each of the parameters, given the observed outbreak data. From the data, we found that fish in the southern region of Norway have a much higher risk of developing CMS than fish in mid and west (parameter estimates (PE) 4.43 (CI: 2.54-7.04) vs. 3.27 and 2.58 (CI: 2.45-4.37 and 2.01-3.57). Further, across all regions, fish put to sea in the late fall develop CMS twice as often as fish put to sea in the early spring (PE 2.18-2.59; CI:1.54-4.6). Previous outbreaks of pancreas disease increased the risk of getting CMS with 3.36 (CI:2.97-3.78) in the west and 1.41 (CI: 1.24-1.63) in the mid regions and decreased the risk with 0.519 (CI: 0.456-0.611) in the south. Previous outbreaks of heart- and skeletal muscle inflammation increased the risk of CMS with 1.56-1.73 (CI:1.34-2.11) in the mid and south regions, and had no effect in the west. In addition, we found that fish groups originating from certain hatcheries had a higher risk of CMS than other fishgroups, independent on which farm they were farmed on. The risk of developing CMS also increased with the number of days at sea. The use of production data in the study gave the possibility to study disease development on a fish group level, and on a daily basis. Thus, the identification of risk factors provides new possibilities for control of disease.