Power Generation System Optimization with Emission Co-benefits Analysis: A Case Study of Shanghai

Power generation industry will become the key air emission (such as CO2 and PM2.5) control sector for China in the mid to long-term. To study the least-cost and maximizing co-benefits of emission reduction, a Reginal Power-generation System Optimization (RPSO) model is built using LEAP platform in this study. Taking Shanghai as a case study, multiple scenarios are designed to simulate the optimal technology development pathways and to evaluate mitigation co-benefits under different air emission targets. The results show that, fuel consumption is reduced while the share of clean generation unit is increased in all emission control scenarios, however, system cost is raised up as well. Ultra-supercritical units take the biggest share in all scenarios, natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units and gas distributed units develop better in PM2.5 constrained scenarios. Hydro and nuclear units reach the maximum capacity limits in all scenarios. Wind and solar units grows fast but account for very little share. Reduction co-benefits of PM2.5 from carbon constrained scenario is larger than that of PM2.5 constrained scenario which indicates carbon migration policy has greater influence on PM2.5 reductions.