Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
2019
Abstract. Fallout of ballistic blocks and bombs ejected from eruptive vents represents
a well-known hazard in areas
proximal to volcanoes (mostly km from the vent). However, fallout of large clasts sedimenting from
plume margins that extend to medial
areas and have the potential to produce severe injuries to people and cause
damage to infrastructure, is often overlooked. Recent eruptive events at
Mount Etna (Italy) provide a clear example where large-clast fallout from
plume margins ( > 5 cm) has posed a real threat both to the many
visitors reaching the summit area and to local infrastructure, and,
therefore, has been selected as a case study. To quantify this hazard, a new
particle sedimentation model was calibrated with field data and then used for
probabilistic hazard assessments. For a fully probabilistic scenario the
hazard zone covered 72 km 2 and included some 125 km of paths and
roads, as well as 15 buildings. Evacuation on foot to a safe area was
estimated at almost 4 h, but this could be reduced to less than 3 h if two
shelters were provided. Our results show the importance of integrating
probabilistic hazard analysis of large-clast fallout within effective
strategies of risk management and reduction, especially in the case of
volcanoes where visitors can reach the summit areas.
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