Why Not the Second Child? An Economic Analysis of Fertility Behaviour of Russian Parents

This study examines fertility decision making throu gh the analysis of short-term, timedependent fertility intentions of childless and par ity one individuals using the ordered logit model. The theoretical framework is Ajzen’s m odel of social psychology “Theory of Planned Behaviour”, which considers intentions a s determined by three factors: attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behaviou ral control. The country of analysis is Russia, a post-communist country with peculiar c haracteristics: Russia is a low fertility country characterized by no, or very mode st first child postponement and a very sharp decline in the second order births. In 2004, the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey was carried out with a set of questio ns designed to implement the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Results show that the three factors are significant determinants of fertility intentions and interestin g insights emerge for the intentions to have a second child. First, the effect of attitudes is increasing with parity and it is gender-specific: in particular, women are more sens ible to negative attitudes towards childbearing than men. Second, fathers attribute st ronger importance to perceived behavioural control than mothers. This scenario rec onciles with a traditional family model and it highlights the difficulties of working mothers to balance work and childcare duties.