Future Temperature-Related Mortality Risk Under Climate Change Scenarios

As the climate changes, global temperatures will increase in the future, and extreme weather will occur more frequently. Epidemiological studies have shown the significant relationship between the ambient temperature and an elevated risk of mortality. With temperature increases in the future, the population mortality risk may increase. Therefore, estimating the risk of future temperature-related mortality is significant for the protection of public health and the reduction of the burden of disease. Most studies assuming relationship between temperature and mortality remain constant; the projected future temperature and future population are substituted for future temperature-related mortality. This chapter will summarize the methods used to estimate the temperature-related mortality risk globally and the progress, results, and limitations of studies in China. By reviewing these studies, we provide a direction for future studies in China that project future temperature-related mortality risk.