Model-free Portfolio Theory: A Rough Path Approach

Based on a rough path foundation, we develop a model-free approach to stochastic portfolio theory (SPT). Our approach allows to handle significantly more general portfolios compared to previous model-free approaches based on F\"ollmer integration. Without the assumption of any underlying probabilistic model, we prove pathwise Master formulae analogous to those of classical SPT, describing the growth of wealth processes associated to functionally generated portfolios relative to the market portfolio. We show that the appropriately scaled asymptotic growth rate of a far reaching generalization of Cover's universal portfolio based on controlled paths coincides with that of the best retrospectively chosen portfolio within this class. We provide several novel results concerning rough integration, and highlight the advantages of the rough path approach by considering (non-functionally generated) log-optimal portfolios in an ergodic It\^o diffusion setting.