Study on Ascertainment Method of Prior Distribution for MTTR on Small Samples

Aims at the fact of the small sample of equipment maintainability test,the paper uses Bayes method to improve the prior distribution method for MTTR in the condition of small sample.According to different quantity of samples,adopts four methods to deduce the collectivity distribution respectively,the four methods are the Bootstrap method,the maximum entropy method,combination of the Bootstrap and the maximum entropy method,the virtually expanded sample method for extremely small scale sample.The paper explains the theory and calculation process emphatically and uses examples to analyze every method's validity.It summarizes all method's advantages and disadvantages in the end,which gives the references of these methods.