The accuracy of short-term radar rainfall forecasts

Abstract A total of 37 weather sequences which passed over the City of Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and which were observed by radar, have been analysed. The object was to determine the accuracy of simple forecasting schemes in giving estimates of the amount of rain an hour or two ahead. Verification was achieved using data from a network of telemetred gages. It was found that the radar-measured accumulations have an inherent error of the order of 25%, 0.5-hr. forecasts have an error of ∼ 50% and 3-hr. forecasts have an error of ∼ 60%.