Longitudinal Flow Cytometry Identified "Minimal Residual Disease" (MRD) Evolution Patterns for Predicting the Prognosis of Patients with Transplant-Eligible Multiple Myeloma

Abstract Many questions about minimal residual disease (MRD) still need to be answered for multiple myeloma (MM). Flow MRD was monitored in 104 consecutive patients with MM after induction and at the 3rd, 6th, 9th, 12th, 18th, and 24th months post-transplant. Four MRD evolution patterns were revealed: Pattern 1 patients had persistent MRD-negative status after post-induction with no progression; pattern 2 patients had MRD-positive status postinduction but became MRD negative within 24 months post-transplant; pattern 3 patients had MRD-negative status postinduction but became MRD positive within 24 months post-transplant; and pattern 4 patients had persistent MRD-positive status after postinduction. Patients with MRD evolution pattern 1 had a better time to progression than did patients with the other evolution patterns (not reached versus not reached, versus 15.4 ± 2.4 months, versus 16.9 ± 3.0 months; log-rank test, P = .003, P = .000, and P = .000, respectively). Patients with MRD pattern 1 had a significantly longer overall survival than did patients with pattern 3 (not reached versus 35.2 ± 18.6 months; log-rank test, P = .000) and pattern 4 (not reached versus 23.8 ± 15.0 months, log-rank test, P = .000) but had a similar overall survival as pattern 2 patients (not reached versus not reached; log-rank test, P = .229). For progressing patients with MRD evolution pattern 2 or 3, the median interval of a sustained MRD-negative status was only 17 months and the median time from MRD reappearance to disease progression was only 4.6 months. A more complete MRD evolution pattern was developed to predict the outcomes for patients with MM. The optimal time of MRD assessment should include postinduction and 3rd and 24th month post-transplant. Regular MRD assessments will help detect relapse early. A sustained negative MRD status should last for at least 24 months.