Spatial deconstruction and differentiation analysis of early warning for ecological security in the Pearl River Delta, China

Abstract The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has experienced rapid urbanization processes for nearly 40 years. Due to the high population densities and developed industries, the region will continue to expand. To explore the impact of future land-use change on land ecological security, a regional ecological security early warning (ESEW) was spatially constructed by overlaying the simulated future built-up land with the current ecological security partition zones. The results showed that (1) the habitat quality was severely degraded in Pearl River Delta and the spatial differentiation was obvious, showing low habitat quality in the middle and high quality in the east and west; (2) the landscape ecological risk showed an increasing trend and the area of higher risk increased from 0.8% to 7.4% of the total area of the Pearl River Delta from 1985 to 2015; (3) each ecological security partition zone changed in different directions, and zone V changed from a single core to a multicore; (4) in the scenario of coordinated development under a balanced environment and economy, an equilibrium of each early warning level of ecological security will be reached. These results provide a reference for land-use planning, urban master planning and management decisions.