Are trends in SeaWiFS chlorophyll time-series unusual relative to historic variability

For selected locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, we compared surface ocean chlorophyll time series extracted from SeaWiFS imagery from 1997–2004 with the results of an ocean coupled circulation and biogeochemical model covering the period 1958–2004. During the 1997–2004 time period, linear trends in model and satellite time series were significantly correlated at most of the 44 sites we studied. Eleven sites were selected for further study, and we used the longer time series of the model to assess whether trends observed during the SeaWiFS period at these 11 sites were unusual in relation to those observed over the longer historical period covered by the model. The results show that the trends observed during the SeaWiFS period were not unusual and fell well within the range in magnitude of linear trends observed in other 8-year periods of model output. This result implies that the SeaWiFS satellite ocean color time series is not yet sufficiently long, on its own, to directly observe any long term changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll that may be occurring in the surface waters of the open ocean as a result of increased ocean stratification linked to global climate changed.