Nomograms for Predicting Non-remission in Patients Who Underwent Bariatric Surgery: A Multicenter Retrospective Study in China.

Background As a reflection of the increasing global incidence of obesity, there is a corresponding increase in the proportion of obese patients undergoing bariatric surgery. This study reviewed the factors and outcomes of patients who underwent bariatric surgical procedures and determined the relationships and developed a nomogram to calculate individualized patient risk. Methods The nomogram was based on a retrospective study on 259 patients who underwent bariatric surgery at the Chengdu Third People's Hospital from June 2017 to June 2019. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by the ROC curve and C-index, respectively. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and a retrospective study on 121 patients operated on from May 2015 to May 2019 at the Tenth People's Hospital of Shanghai. Results The predictors contained in the prediction nomogram included age, sex, surgical approach, hyperlipidemia, blood pressure (BP), hyperuricemia, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC). The 6-month model displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.765 (95% CI: 0.756 to 0.774) and good calibration. The 1-year model reached a C-index of 0.768 (95% CI, 0.759 to 0.777) in the training cohort. Conclusions The proposed nomogram resulted in more accurate non-remission prediction for patients with obesity after bariatric surgery and may provide a reference for the preoperative choice of surgical methods.