Evaluation of CSM-Ceres-Maize Model for Simulating Maize Production in Northern Delta of Egypt

There is widespread consensus that Egypt is among the developing countries that are most vulnerable to the likely negative impacts of climate change. Northern Egypt is the most threaten area under Egyptian conditions. The expected climate change impacts are the driving force to investigate the suitable sowing date and irrigation requirements to face the food security needs. A field study was conducted in 2011 and 2012 at El-Bosaily farm in the Northern coast of Egypt. The main objectives of this study were to adapt maize production under expected climate change impacts via evaluating the response of the Single Cross 10 maize (Zea mays L.) hybrid to three different sowing dates (SD) (1 st and mid of May and 1 st of June) and four applied irrigation levels 0.6, 0.8, 1.0 and 1.2 of ET c which applied by drip irrigation system. No. of leaves, leaf area index, number of days for 50 % tasseling and silking, grain yield (g/plant), average weight of 100 seeds and straw yield (g/plant) were determined beside water use efficiency. The obtained results showed that the 0.6 and 0.8 of (ET c ) irrigation treatments attributed to decline vegetative growth as well as growth yield. Nevertheless, the 1.2 irrigation treatments gave the highest grain yield and vegetative growth which was compensated the amount of water consumed. The highest yield was obtained by the second sowing date followed by the third one. The final results show that the 0.6 irrigation level gave the highest water use efficiency; increasing irrigation water above 0.6 from ET c led to decrease water use efficiency. The lowest value of seasonal water consumption was recorded by the first sowing date while the second date gave the highest seasonal water consumption. Calibration and validation of CERES-Maize crop simulation model using experimental datasets of years 2011 and 2012 were done successfully giving very excellent values for RMSE and d- Stat evaluation indexes. Environmental modification option of the model was used to rise maximum and minimum temperature by 1.5 o C and 3.5 o C for both seasons. Reductions in grain yield for 1.5 o C scenario arrived to -25.1 than 2011 year and -31.9% than 2012 year. Using 3.5