Geotechnical Risk Assessment of Mine Development Intersections with Respect to Mining Sequence

Mine developments such as haulage drifts and their intersections with cross-cuts are the only stope access in sub-level stoping mining system. Thus, they must remain stable during their service life. Haulage drift instability could lead to serious consequences such as: production delay, damage to equipment, loss of reserves and high operational cost. The goal of this paper is the stability of mine developments with respect to mining sequence with focus on the performance of haulage drift intersection during the production plan. A case study, the #1 Shear East orebody at Vale’s Garson Mine in Sudbury Ontario will be examined in this paper. A three-dimensional, elastoplastic, finite difference code (FLAC3D) is used for this study. The extent of strength-to-stress ratio corresponds to Mohr–Coulomb strength-to-stress ratio of 1.4 is used as failure evaluation criterion. The unsatisfactory performance is reached when the extent of strength-to-stress ratio exceeds the anchorage limit of the rockbolt. Stochastic analysis; adopting point-estimate method, is then employed with the numerical modelling to tackle the inherent uncertainty associated with rockmass properties. Then, the probability of instability at various mining steps is estimated for the roof and north wall of the studied intersection. The cost of consequence models is introduced to provide an economical solution if the intersection failed, blocked or damaged. Furthermore, the geotechnical risk associated with the instability of mine development intersection is estimated using risk-indexing tool. The results are presented and categorized in terms of probability, cost of consequence and risk-index at various mining stages.