Climate Change in Ireland: Science, Impacts and Adaptation

Climate modelling has advanced considerably in recent years largely as a result of rapid expansion in computing power. This has enabled the anthropogenic contributions to individual extreme events to be quantified, and provides powerful instruments for informing climate policy decisions. Ireland has already warmed by 0.5°C over the 1980–2010 period by comparison to the earlier 30-year reference period and is already experiencing an increased frequency of extreme events in some categories. Climate change, as a threat multiplier, promises to have significant effects in several sectors in Ireland, principally through rainfall changes. Impacts on flood and drought hazards are most prominent, though impacts on biodiversity, agriculture and forestry, and coastal environments will require forward planning if the worst impacts are to be avoided. Adaptation, however, is proving to be a complex concept to gain public acceptance as conflicts between short- and long-term views of risk arise. Mitigation obligations are however even more problematical due to an unwillingness to take decisive action in the face of powerful interest groups.