STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF THE AUTOMATED GUIDEWAY TRANSIT INDUSTRY IN THE UNITED STATES

Since the late 1970s, many changes have taken place in the firms that are active in providing automated guideway transit (AGT) systems. Many U.S. firms once active in the industry have withdrawn, and at the same time a number of foreign firms have demonstrated that they can compete effectively within the United States. Recent history of the U.S. portion of the industry is reviewed and interpreted in the light of the nature of the AGT market; the types of firms that were at one time in the industry as well as those that remain; and the dynamics of entry and exit in the industry. Based on this background, the future prospects for the industry are discussed. The importance of the role of the federal government, and as a result, the existence of two AGT markets-federal and nonfederal--is emphasized. The primary focus is on the federal AGT market, and the following implications of both U.S. and foreign governmental roles for U.S. firms are explored: high business development costs, frequent lapses in program continuity, high levels of dependence on local decision making in spite of federal funding for system planning and implementation, and disparities in levels of support for AGT research and development from country to country.