Common trends in producers’ expectations, the nonlinear linkage with Uruguayan GDP and its implications in economic growth forecasting

This paper examines the common trends between producers’ expectations and their interdependence with economic growth in Uruguay, for the last two decades (1998-2017). We consider producers’ expectation indicators derived from qualitative surveys collected by the “Camara de Industrias del Uruguay” classified in four groups: exporters, low-trade industries, import-substitution industries and intra-sectoral trade industries. In base on Multivariate Structural Models estimations, we found that there is a common level between the expectation indicators of four manufacturing groups. The group who lead expectations of all manufacturing firms is the more exposed to international competition. So, the trend component of the exporters' expectations drives that of the other groups. The research additionally shows that there is a nonlinear cointegration relationship between producers’ expectations and Uruguayan GDP growth. Although it indicates that in the long-run there is bidirectional causality between both variables, in the short-run causality goes uniquely from expectations to GDP growth. Besides, this finding suggests that expectations could be an accurate leader indicator; the driver of the global expectation is the aggregate indicator of the more tradable manufacturers in Uruguay.