The Impact on Carbon Emissions of China with the Trade Situation versus the U.S.

The China–US trade conflict will inevitably have a negative impact on China’s trade imports and exports, industrial development, and economic growth, and will affect the achievement of climate change goals. In the short term, the impact of the trade conflict on China’s import and export trade will cause the carbon emissions contained in traded commodities to change accordingly. To assess the impact of the trade conflict on China’s climate policy, this paper combines a model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the input–output analysis method and calculates the carbon emissions in international trade before and after the conflict. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade war has led to a sharp decline in China–US trade, but for China as a whole, imports and exports have not changed much; (2) China’s export emissions have changed little, its import emissions have dropped slightly, and its net emissions have increased; and (3) China’s exports are still concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Changes in trade will bring challenges to China’s balancing of climate and trade exigencies. China–US cooperation based on energy and technology will help China cope with climate change after the trade conflict.