Short-term CO2 emissions forecasting based on decomposition approaches

We are facing major challenges related to global warming and emissions of greenhouse gases is a major causing factor. It is therefore of paramount importance to reduce these emissions. The focus of this study is on reducing CO2 emissions from electricity consumption. We propose a new short-term CO2 emissions forecast to enable scheduling of flexible electricity consumption to minimize the resulting CO2 emissions. Two proposed time series decomposition methods are compared for short-term forecasting of the CO2 emissions of electricity. The result is a new forecasting method with a 48-hour horizon targeted the day-ahead electricity market. We provide a case study of five European countries where we find substantial potential for reducing CO2 emissions when using the proposed forecast to schedule flexible electricity consumption one day in advance.