Forest Wood Consumption and Wood Shortage in Pakistan: Estimation and Projection through System Dynamics
2018
Consumption rates of major forest products such as timber and
firewood, place significant strain on wood stock and forest area in
Pakistan. With the country's rising population, the consumption of these
two major products is increasing because of the growing energy demand,
and no alternative products are likely to replace wood consumption in
the near future. We apply system dynamics modelling to an analysis of
the forestry sector in Pakistan for novel insights into the drivers and
future trajectories of wood consumption. The present research is based
on time series macroeconomic data from 1990-2010 and projections to 2040
of wood supply, forest area, population growth, wood extraction, wood
imports and different uses of wood in the country. The study reveals
that there is no significant increase in area under forest, while
consumption of firewood and timber has increased. The consumption of
firewood is greater than timber consumption in Pakistan, both in
percentage share and in total volume of wood consumption. The
sustainable supply of wood is less than wood consumption, and with
population growth this gap is increasing; wood supply from agricultural
lands is a viable option to fill the gap. Keywords: Wood Consumption,
Sustainable Wood Supply, Projected Wood Shortage
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