Method for predicting water area where water bloom of blue algae occurs first next year in large shallow lake

The invention discloses a method for predicting the water area where water bloom of blue algae occurs first next year in a large shallow lake, which is characterized by comprising: based on the area and characteristics of water, setting a monitoring point for sampling water and bottom sediment; characterizing the time and spatial distribution of blue algae by using pigment analysis; characterizing the activity of blue algae in all lake areas by using photosynthesis activity and esterase activity of cells; acquiring meteorological data of the lake areas, and determining an effective wind field; and building an ecological dynamic module to predict the area where the water bloom of blue algae occurs first next year. In the method disclosed by the invention, the biomass and growth activity of the blue algae and the effective wind field are regarded as the common triggering factors of the formation of water bloom, the growth and transport of the blue algae and the driving factors of the formation of the water bloom are analyzed to estimate the change law of the ecological pattern of overwintering and resurrection of blue algae, the formation of water bloom of blue algae is predicted from multiple angles, parameters are integrated by the module, and the prediction result is directly displayed in a blue algae biomass contour map mode according to a time sequence.